Picture supply: Rolls-Royce plc
It has been an outstanding few years for aeronautical engineer Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR). The shares had been among the many best-performing on the FSTE 100 over the previous a number of years. But, even coming into 2025 with that monitor report, they’ve completed brilliantly once more. The Rolls-Royce share value is up 86% because the flip of the yr.
Not solely have the shares had beautiful momentum in recent times, however the enterprise efficiency has additionally been spectacular.
Missed alternatives
As 2024 loomed, I believed to myself, “ought to I purchase Rolls-Royce shares?” and determined towards it, lacking out on a yr of huge progress.
As 2025 loomed, I believed the identical factor, once more did nothing – and once more missed out on a storming efficiency.
Now, with 2026 on the horizon and eyeing the five-year Rolls-Royce share value acquire of 741%, I’m (shock, shock) asking myself the identical query.
Might now be the time for me so as to add some Rolls-Royce shares to my portfolio?
Value doesn’t look unjustifiable
Taking a look at an aeroplane’s vapour path doesn’t essentially point out the place it’ll go subsequent. It will probably change course.
The identical is true for share costs. Rolls-Royce’s glorious efficiency in recent times isn’t any assurance of what might come subsequent.
Nonetheless, what I do discover fascinating is that regardless of that 741% acquire over 5 years, right this moment’s Rolls-Royce share price-to-earnings ratio is 16.
That isn’t a screaming discount. However I additionally don’t suppose it’s essentially costly for a confirmed blue-chip enterprise with ongoing progress prospects.
Heaps to stay up for
Lately (and once more this yr), Rolls-Royce has raised its medium-term outlook. It has additionally persistently delivered on its monetary targets, boosting Metropolis confidence within the firm’s administration.
Only a few weeks in the past, it affirmed its full-year 2025 outlook of £3.1bn-£3.2bn in underlying working revenue and £3.0bn-£3.1bn in free money movement.
With demand buoyant in civil aviation and defence, plus resilient long-term demand in energy techniques, all three of Rolls-Royce’s enterprise divisions have the wind at their again.
Add to that the corporate’s sharpened monetary self-discipline of current years and deal with monetary supply and I see the funding case as robust.
Staying on the sidelines
So on that foundation, I reckon the Rolls-Royce share value might proceed its upwards march in 2026.
Nonetheless, there are a few issues that put me off investing, that means I’ll keep on the sidelines for now.
One is, mockingly, how nicely the share has been doing.
A part of that’s undoubtedly about enterprise efficiency however a few of it’s also momentum. Momentum can abruptly change, even when a enterprise does nicely.
Accordingly I see a threat that the Rolls-Royce share value may very well be hammered even when the corporate barely disappoints the market in any means.
One other threat that issues me is the prospect of any slowdown in civil aviation demand. That has been excessive in recent times, however geopolitical spats and tightening shopper budgets might probably result in a slowdown.
The trade sometimes additionally will get blindsided by dramatic in a single day demand falls which are unexpected, as through the pandemic and after terrorist assaults.
Bearing these dangers in thoughts, I’m not going to be shopping for Rolls-Royce shares as we head in direction of 2026.
