Is AI Cutting Into Your SEO Conversions?

Since March 2025 within the U.S. (and Might elsewhere), many websites have seen an uncomfortable sample: natural conversions slipping.

It’s straightforward guilty falling visitors from Google’s intensified AI Overviews.

However buy intent doesn’t simply vanish. Does it?

In case your conversions are holding regular, congratulations. In the event that they’re not, the explanations could also be extra layered than you suppose.

In at present’s Memo, I’m breaking down the 5 largest forces I see behind website positioning conversion declines throughout industries:

• Lack of top-of-the-funnel (TOFU) visitors (and why it issues greater than you thought).
• Platform shifts pulling demand into different ecosystems.
• Channel shifts from natural to paid search.
• Attribution leakage that hides natural’s true affect.
• Macro components pressuring conversion charges.

I’ll additionally stroll you thru the alerts to test, find out how to measure every, and – contained in the premium part – the precise course of I exploit to determine which drivers are hitting a web site the toughest.

Boost your skills with Growth Memo’s weekly expert insights. Subscribe for free!

How have your SEO conversions changed since Google intensified AI Overviews?

If they’ve grown – all the power to you!

If not, I’m seeing five underlying reasons that could be contributing to their decline across industry types:

1. Loss of TOFU traffic.
2. Platform shift.
3. Channel shift.
4. Attribution loss.
5. Economic change.

Sites that are noticing an SEO conversion drop have seen it since 2025 (March in the U.S., May in other countries).

It’s logical to assume that the reason is a decline in organic traffic – makes sense – but purchase intent doesn’t just vanish.

Have your conversions gone to other sites, or could there be another explanation behind their decline?

Let’s dig in.

For decades, SEOs have created top-of-the-funnel content (like “what is X” or “why you need X”). This kind of content often has an unclear impact on the bottom line.

Now that organic clicks are dropping, conversions are dropping (to a lower degree) as well.

Was top-of-the-funnel content more impactful than we thought all along?

I raised that theory first in the AI Halftime Report:

AIOs are really mostly TOFU queries. In that case, TOFU content always had more impact on the bottom line than we were able to prove and we can expect the traffic decline to level off.

Or AIOs impact way more than MOFU and BOFU queries as well (which is what I think), and we’re in for a long decline of traffic.

If true, I expect revenue that’s attributed to organic search to decline at a lower rate – or not at all for certain companies – since purchase intent doesn’t just go away. Therefore, revenue results would relate more to our ability to influence purchase intent.

That’s where my concept of “Demand Activation” elasticity comes in.

In economics, price elasticity measures how much demand changes when prices change.

In marketing, Demand Activation elasticity describes how much eventual purchase behavior changes when you influence someone early in their journey.

Think about Demand Activation as how many potential customers you influence to buy from you.

If the “elasticity” is high, being visible at the very top of the funnel creates a disproportionate downstream impact on revenue, even if you can’t directly attribute it in analytics.

If this turns out to be correct, it’s an argument for earning AI visibility.

If Demand Activation has the impact I think it has, being visible in ChatGPT, AI Mode & Co. has stronger downstream effects than we can directly attribute. I’ve certainly seen more high-pipeline deals and purchases come from ChatGPT for some of my clients.

To illustrate the concept, let’s consider an economic example.

I’ve been searching for an excuse to write about the economic impact if Germany were to open stores on Sundays for a long time: Would people buy more if they could, or would purchases simply spread out across more days?

Studies by the EHI, IFO, and IW Köln show that people in Germany would actually buy more if stores were open on Sundays, especially non-food items. ^[1, 2, 3]

Shops in Germany do open a couple of Sundays a 12 months.

And through these uncommon events, individuals store extra, particularly for impulse buys.

Some analysis means that it’s primarily pushed by occasions and tourism in larger spend areas, however taking a look at EU neighbors with an open-Sunday coverage, just like the Netherlands, we see persistently larger incremental retail spend.

To carry it again to Search, publicity early on within the consumer journey (as in “extra open Sundays”) may need a stronger downstream affect (like extra top-of-funnel visits) than we thought. Subsequently, it could possibly be essential to be broadly seen in LLMs.

Alerts To Verify:

1. TOFU visitors decline vs. MOFU/BOFU.

• How you can measure: In Search Console, filter queries utilizing a TOFU regex (take away branded phrases). Examine YOY clicks for TOFU vs. MOFU/BOFU.

2. Branded search quantity change.

• How you can measure: Use Google Developments or a basic key phrase software (Ahrefs, Semrush) to trace branded search quantity over time. Correlate drops with TOFU visitors declines and conversions from natural.

3. Assisted conversions drop.

• How you can measure: In GA4 or one other MTA mannequin, examine YOY assisted conversions from natural search. A pointy drop suggests TOFU content material was influencing downstream income.

One other rationalization is that conversions are taking place extra on different platforms as an alternative of Google Search.

Whereas Google’s advert market share has grown during the last 5 years, search conduct has diversified throughout a number of ecosystems:

• TikTok, YouTube, Reddit, LinkedIn, Instagram, area of interest boards – all of which have their very own “search” layers.
• YouTube has lengthy been the second-largest search engine on the planet.
• Reddit is now the second-largest web site within the U.S. (solely Wikipedia is greater), and Google is surfacing Reddit content material extra prominently, besides in ecommerce.

The largest shift, nonetheless, could also be to LLMs.

ChatGPT alone sees 2.5 billion prompts per day.^[4] Whereas many prompts are additive to Google Search and exploratory in intent, it’s unlikely there’s no overlap with purchase-driven queries.

Why that is taking place now:

• Google’s elevated integration of Reddit outcomes (high-trust consumer content material) modifications click on patterns.
• New LLM mannequin releases (ChatGPT o3, Gemini 2.5) enhance high quality and pace, holding customers inside AI environments longer.
• AI-first platforms are starting to really feel much less “experimental” and extra like a default analysis software.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Alerts To Verify:

1. Referral visitors from non-Google search platforms.

• How you can measure: In GA4, monitor YOY referral visitors from YouTube, Reddit, TikTok, LinkedIn. See if positive aspects coincide with Google natural losses.

2. Share of search exercise throughout platforms.

• How you can measure: Use Similarweb, Statcounter, or GWI to match platform-specific search volumes and market share over time.

3. Self-reported attribution.

• How you can measure: Ask customers to fill out a brief survey about the place they first and final noticed your model after signing up or shopping for.

It’s also potential that the clicks that may have gone to natural search are actually going to paid search. The logic is easy:

When AI Overviews or zero-click outcomes fulfill a lot of the informational want, the one distinguished gives left are sometimes advertisements.

If customers nonetheless need to discover a services or products after studying an AIO, they may be extra prone to click on the sponsored end result than scroll additional to natural hyperlinks.

The timing matches AIO rollout phases. If we see Google reporting sturdy Search income development whereas natural visitors declines, it’s a signal the demand has not disappeared – it’s simply being monetized in another way.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Alphabet’s Q1 2025 10‑Q ^[5] reveals that paid clicks from Google Search both grew or hit 0% development within the final 10 quarters, however by no means declined.

Impressions (from Google Community), however, noticed the other development.

At any time when paid impressions drop, paid clicks go up as a result of decrease advert stock means advertisers must pay extra for visitors.

Q2 2025 earnings ^[6] highlighted that Search advert income grew 12% 12 months‑over‑12 months. Trade benchmark information reveals that the common Google CPC in 2025 lands at $5.26 – up roughly 13% year-over-year.^[7]

So, much less advert stock results in larger CPCs and extra paid clicks.

Since we don’t know what number of AI Overviews Google exhibits advertisements for, we will’t say with certainty that extra clicks are going to advertisements as a direct end result, however the information does present that extra clicks are going to advertisements.

Alerts To Verify:

1. Natural vs. paid search visitors share.

• How you can measure: In GA4, examine YOY classes from natural search vs. paid search. Search for paid’s share growing as natural drops.

2. Paid search impression and click on development.

• How you can measure: Pull impressions and clicks out of your Google Advertisements account (or business benchmarks) during the last 12 months and examine to pre-AIO intervals.

3. CPC and CPA tendencies.

• How you can measure: In Google Advertisements or business benchmarks, monitor YOY CPC and CPA modifications in your vertical. Rising CPC with natural decline suggests a combination shift.

One (well-liked) chance is that the affect of natural search has not modified a lot, however the way in which we measure it has.

Primarily, basic attribution strategies are damaged.

Within the basic mannequin, the trail was:

Search → Click on → Touchdown Web page → Conversion

Now, the trail could look extra like:

Search (or AIO) → Model Recall → Direct Go to → Conversion

AI Overviews reply the consumer’s query earlier than the press, so when they’re prepared to purchase, they bypass the search click on fully and go straight to the homepage or an app.

In analytics, that conversion exhibits up as direct visitors, not natural search.

Attribution leakage has all the time been a problem for website positioning, however AI-driven summaries and model mentions make it worse.

As a result of it’s a requirement seize channel, take into account that website positioning takes far more time between first and final contact to transform customers than the default 90-day lookback window.

Usually, the final contact is vulnerable to paid channels as a result of promoting suggestions individuals over the sting.

Additionally, it’s not unusual for customers to modify units throughout a purchase order cycle, making attribution method tougher. Lastly, most attribution instruments are geared in the direction of promoting.

When you solely monitor last-click conversions, it’s possible you’ll underestimate the true contribution of search visibility.

Alerts To Verify:

1. Direct conversions are up whereas natural conversions are down.

• How you can measure: In GA4, examine YOY direct channel conversions vs. natural. Search for inverse motion.

2. Branded search secure or rising.

• How you can measure: Use Google Developments or a key phrase software to trace branded search queries. Stability with natural session decline suggests clicks are being skipped.

3. Multi-touch attribution nonetheless exhibits search affect.

• How you can measure: In GA4 (data-driven mannequin) or a devoted attribution software, test if search stays a typical first or help touchpoint even when last-click conversions fall.

Are website positioning conversion charges down as a result of individuals merely have much less cash?

There may be credible proof that macro situations within the U.S. are weighing on conversion charges:

1. Value sensitivity and promotion dependence

Adobe experiences that consumers have been unusually value elastic throughout the vacation season of 2024.

A 1% drop in value produced a roughly 1.03% rise in demand, indicating elevated sensitivity to reductions. That impact implies conversions have been closely promotion-led.^[8]

Adobe’s Digital Value Index exhibits on-line costs have fallen for 33 straight months by way of Might 2025, suggesting retailers are discounting to stimulate demand.

Sustained discounting usually lifts conversions solely when value cuts are materials, and it compresses margins.^[9]

2. Shopper warning and blend shift

Salesforce’s Buying Index commentary notes U.S. consumers “shopping for much less,” prioritizing necessities, and buying and selling down in 2025.

It additionally cites 0% U.S. ecommerce gross sales development in Q1 2025, in keeping with softer sensitivity to buy.^[10]

Shopper confidence has improved barely however stays gentle relative to 2024, which tends to dampen conversion charges.^[11]

3. Family finance constraints

The New York Fed experiences whole family debt at a file $18.39 trillion in Q2 2025, with delinquency charges up from earlier intervals and bank card balances at $1.21 trillion.

Greater borrowing prices and rising delinquencies constrain checkout conversion, particularly for lower-income cohorts.^[12]

4. Noticed conversion stress in digital benchmarks

Contentsquare’s 2025 Digital Expertise Benchmark finds on-line conversion charges fell 6.1% 12 months over 12 months, attributing a lot to expertise friction.

In context with the macro alerts above, this helps a broader atmosphere the place it’s tougher to show visits into orders with out heavier incentives.^[13]

However…

General, U.S. ecommerce {dollars} are nonetheless rising in lots of intervals, together with +5.6% year-over-year in Q1 2025 and powerful vacation spend, so demand has not collapsed.

Development is being “purchased” by way of value cuts and promotions, which may masks weaker underlying conversion propensity.^[14, 15]

Additionally, you might argue that these financial situations have been in place for a couple of years.

Why would they affect website positioning conversions a lot now?

Alerts To Verify:

1. Natural conversion charge development vs. different channels.

• Monitor month-to-month website positioning conversion charges alongside paid search, direct, and electronic mail.
• If all channels decline in parallel, macroeconomic stress is a possible driver.
• If natural drops disproportionately, AI Overviews are including to the decline.

2. Correlation with financial indicators.

• Examine natural CR tendencies to macro metrics like CPI, inflation charge, Shopper Confidence Index, and on-line value tendencies (Adobe DPI).
• Search for statistically important correlations, like CR rising when CPI falls or confidence will increase.
• If patterns are related throughout Paid Search and Direct, macroeconomic components are seemingly influencing buy readiness.

3. Promotion elasticity

• Measure CR elevate throughout promotions vs. baseline for natural, paid, and direct visitors.
• An even bigger elevate than in prior years – particularly if mirrored throughout channels – signifies conversions are more and more discount-driven, an indication of macro stress.

When you’re experiencing a decline in website positioning conversions in 2025, it’s seemingly not because of one particular motive.

In reality, it’s seemingly that every one 5 choices are taking part in into website positioning conversion drops throughout the net.

To what diploma every choice has an affect issues from web site to web site and business to business.

That’s why it’s so essential to run the evaluation I like to recommend in every part above to your personal information.

AI Mode will intensify the downward development of website positioning conversions.

I don’t suppose website positioning will decline to zero as a result of a small fraction of individuals will nonetheless click on, even in AI Mode.

And Google gained’t present AI Mode in all places, as a result of adoption is generational (see the UX research of AIOs for more information).

I believe AI Mode will launch at a broader scale (like displaying up for extra queries general) when Google figures out monetization.

Plus, ChatGPT is just not but monetizing, so advertisers go to Google and Meta – for now. And that’s my speculation as to why Google Search is constant to develop.

No less than in the meanwhile.

It’ll be fascinating to see what occurs subsequent within the coming months.

Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal