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I took an absolute battering by the hands of the Aston Martin (LSE: AML) share worth, till I lastly offered my depleted stake for components six months in the past.
I feared the FTSE 250-listed James Bond automotive maker would possibly ship the ultimate insult by rebounding the second I offloaded my stake, however it couldn’t even handle that.
Aston Martin shares are down round 95% over 5 years, 60% over 12 months and virtually 20% over six months. Right now, they commerce at about 34p, valuing the corporate at simply £340m.
That’s a surprising collapse from its IPO worth of £19 within the hopeful days of October 2018, when the group was valued at £4.33bn.
It’s been a horrible trip
Virtually all the things that would go flawed has. It has repeatedly wanted contemporary cash, together with assist from chairman Lawrence Stroll. Aston Martin has additionally been pummelled by tariffs, weaker demand, larger prices and its half-hearted however costly shift in the direction of electrification.
Income’s been going the flawed means:
- 2025 – £1.26bn
- 2024 – £1.58bn
- 2023 – £1.63bn
- 2022 – £1.38bn
- 2021 – £1.10bn
Web revenue was adverse over the identical interval, slipping 52% in 2025 to a £493.2m loss.
Web debt hit £1.38bn on the finish of 2025, and accelerated to £1.545bn by 30 June. The board burned by way of £198m of free money within the first half of 2026, however that was a marked enchancment on £321m in H1 2025, largely as a consequence of high-margin Valhalla hybrid supercar deliveries scaling up.
FTSE 250 restoration inventory hope
I don’t wish to write Aston Martin off. The product vary is arguably the strongest for years, with the Vantage, DB12 and Vanquish all refreshed, whereas the much-delayed Valhalla started deliveries within the fourth quarter of 2025. Aston Martin delivered 152 Valhallas final yr and expects round 500 extra in 2026.
The shares might mount a spectacular restoration if administration can stabilise money movement and begin slicing debt. However larger rates of interest are including to the debt burden, whereas larger gas costs and inflation aren’t serving to.
Right here’s a glimmer of hope. Newest analyst consensus goal is round 41p, which is round 21% above right this moment’s worth. But out of 11 brokers, just one calls it a Purchase. 9 say Maintain and there’s one Sturdy Promote.
Causes the shares might get better:
- Profitable Valhalla deliveries might carry margins and reinforce the model’s ultra-luxury credentials.
- Falling rates of interest would scale back the price of servicing its huge debt pile.
- A stronger world economic system might put rich customers again into spending mode.
…However there are additionally severe challenges:
- Aston Martin may need extra capital, creating additional dilution for present shareholders.
- US tariffs might squeeze already skinny margins.
- One other weak gross sales interval would go away the stability sheet trying much more fragile.
I made my determination six months in the past and I haven’t regretted it. If the worldwide economic system begins to shine once more, this play on conspicuous consumption might take off. However that feels a good distance off, and I nonetheless don’t assume Aston Martin is value contemplating right this moment. I can see way more tempting FTSE progress shares on the market.
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Harvey Jones doesn’t maintain any positions within the corporations talked about.
