Most ChatGPT customers additionally go to Google. Similarweb put the share of ChatGPT customers who additionally present up in Google’s viewers at 95% in September 2025, and the speed stayed at 95% by way of Might 2026, at the same time as visits to generative AI platforms grew by 70% year-over-year. Similarweb reads that as AI being added to go looking reasonably than changing it. Greg Jarboe highlighted this in his July SEJ evaluation.
A examine from Bocconi College, which I lined a month earlier, confirmed a 9.4% drop in conventional search queries amongst households that gained entry to ChatGPT Search, with the hole rising the longer they’d it. Each will be true as a result of overlap counts folks, whereas the Bocconi examine counts queries per family.
This yr’s analysis retains exhibiting these two measures shifting on their very own, together with a 3rd, clicks, which may fall even when the variety of folks, and queries maintain. A search practitioner being requested why referrals fell whereas studies say no one left Google is standing in the course of that hole.
Utilizing Google Is A Low Bar To Clear
Overlap helps us decide if the identical people are a part of two completely different audiences throughout a specified timeframe. For instance, somebody who performs a single Google search in a month is categorized as a Google person. This might contain somebody who has moved a few of their analysis to ChatGPT however nonetheless makes use of Google for maps, login, and retailer hours.
Similarweb’s August submit on the report explains that overlap appears at whether or not the identical folks seem in each audiences, reasonably than analyzing how they work together in a single analysis session. Because of this somebody can nonetheless be a Google person whereas sending a rising share of particular question varieties to ChatGPT. The report doesn’t specify query-level substitution, and that is confirmed within the submit. The report additionally leaves out API utilization, desktop apps, and in-app AI options, which Similarweb says usually tend to substitute search actions reasonably than add to them. For instance, a developer utilizing the API or somebody doing all their actions by way of a desktop app wouldn’t be mirrored within the panel.
Overlap doesn’t point out how ceaselessly folks use these companies. Pew’s February survey of 5,119 U.S. adults revealed that 49% have ever used a chatbot, 42% use one to search out info, and 60% learn AI summaries on the prime of search outcomes. I lined these statistics in June. “Ever use” is a broad metric, and these figures don’t element how utilization is distributed throughout numerous actions.
Similar Customers, Fewer Searches
This Bocconi paper explores how search conduct modifications when households acquire entry to ChatGPT Search. Utilizing Comscore’s U.S. desktop clickstream knowledge from October 2024 to July 2025, a window overlaying OpenAI’s three expansions of ChatGPT Search entry, the examine compares households that gained entry with related households that had no prior ChatGPT or Claude exercise.
Outcomes present that, on common, households diminished their conventional search queries by 3.14 per week after gaining entry, which is roughly 9.4% lower than the pre-expansion common of 33.51. This decline elevated over time, reaching 17.0% after 20 weeks.
Evaluating logged-in ChatGPT customers with Search entry in December 2024 to nameless customers who gained entry in February 2025 revealed smaller declines, 4.9% on common, and eight.2% after 20 weeks. The authors learn the smaller determine as an indication that evaluating adopters with nonusers might decide up variations in who adopts AI reasonably than the impact of entry.
The largest drops in search referrals have been in informational classes. Referrals to tutorial websites dropped by 32.8%, reference websites by 26.5%, developer websites by 15.1%, and information websites by 13.4%. In distinction, referrals to marketplaces, and leisure websites barely moved or couldn’t be instructed aside from zero. The paper emphasizes that these patterns are descriptive and don’t set up causality.
In response to the identical Comscore panel, Google’s family attain remained regular at about 49%, whereas ChatGPT’s expanded from 4.6% to 7.9%. Households with entry nonetheless ran fewer queries, so Google’s viewers held whereas queries fell, in a single dataset. These insights come from a working paper analyzing desktop looking knowledge as much as July 2025, earlier than AI Mode reached its present scale.
Different Analysis Finds Search And AI Used Collectively
A working paper by Samira Gholami, Cristiana Firullo, Cristobal Cheyre, and Alessandro Acquisti on SSRN in February studies that customers who used a chatbot visited extra web sites afterward. They studied 4,394 Comscore desktop customers who began utilizing a big language mannequin (LLM) between August 2023 and January 2024. Adoption was linked to a constant improve in weekly distinctive web site visits and a brief increase in conventional search exercise, which later declined.
The authors name the search estimates noisy and cease in need of claiming a long-lasting discount. Information from a 2025 subject examine with 308 U.S. Chrome customers factors the identical approach, with periods that used each an LLM, and search engine lasted longer, and concerned extra websites, whereas LLM-only periods have been shorter, and narrower. For the reason that Comscore knowledge predates ChatGPT Search and AI Mode, it pertains to earlier merchandise than these mentioned by Bocconi.
The staff behind the AI Mode experiment evaluations these earlier research in their very own paper and describes the proof as blended, with some research exhibiting folks search much less after adopting a chatbot whereas others point out they use each side-by-side.
AI Mode Can Change The Outcomes Web page With out Changing Google
Google’s numbers make it more durable to deal with Google and AI as two separate issues to match. At I/O in Might, Sundar Pichai introduced that AI Overviews had over 2.5 billion month-to-month energetic customers, whereas AI Mode hit over 1 billion in its first yr. Liz Reid additionally famous document question volumes final quarter. Pichai summarized the corporate’s perspective: “When folks use our AI-powered options in Search, they use Search extra.”
These claims don’t have baseline or user-level knowledge for unbiased verification. What the numbers do present is {that a} rising share of Google use runs by way of AI options, which I lined when the primary AI Mode utilization knowledge got here out. When customers have interaction with AI Mode, they’re each Google, and AI customers, and should by no means see the normal outcomes web page.
A current subject experiment, revealed on arXiv on August 18, seemed into what occurs when AI Mode turns into the principle expertise. Stephanie T. Wang, Jeffrey Gleason, Yakov Bart, Christo Wilson, and Danaé Metaxa recruited 1,100 U.S. Chrome customers who use Google as their principal search engine. After observing their exercise for 3 days, they randomly assigned members to 3 teams for per week: commonplace Google, Google with AI Overviews hidden, or Google with all searches carried out in AI Mode.
At baseline, 0.6% of searches used AI Mode, however within the therapy group, 94.7% of searches have been routed there, which the authors describe as compelled, full adoption reasonably than the gradual opt-in most individuals would expertise. The researchers additionally famous that the results of voluntary use might differ.
On this setup, there was an 18.8 proportion level lower in click-through to exterior websites (with a 95% confidence interval of -22.2 to -15.3), and search periods declined by roughly 0.92 per day, from a mean of 4.0. Notably, extra frequent Google customers skilled a bigger decline. In the meantime, the common session length elevated by 0.43 minutes. The share of members clicking by way of to information websites dropped by 12.5 factors, Reddit by 21.2 factors, and Wikipedia by 9.9 factors.
Members additionally checked out different choices. The share of members utilizing Bing, DuckDuckGo, or Yahoo went up by 11.2 factors, however scores for belief, satisfaction, and usefulness went down. Out of 309 AI Mode customers who answered an open-ended query, 47 (about 15.3%) reported problem reaching particular web sites, and one particular person talked about that after they entered a web site, “it might inform me concerning the web site as a substitute.” When AI Overviews have been hidden, exterior clicks elevated by 8.8 factors amongst these the place the extension labored. Nonetheless, a mid-study change to Google’s interface disrupted the hiding function for roughly half of the AI Overviews.
The examine primarily concerned youthful, extra educated, and extra left-leaning customers in comparison with the overall U.S. inhabitants. Moreover, a seven-day interval is inadequate to look at long-term behavior modifications. In April, I mentioned an experiment by Agarwal and Sen that additionally routed a gaggle into AI Mode and located fewer outbound clicks and decrease satisfaction, although these authors labeled that arm exploratory as a result of some members dropped out. Wang’s staff pre-registered their AI Mode comparability and located no proof of elevated dropout, so the 2 experiments now level the identical approach.
Why This Issues
A information web site can keep constant Google impressions regardless of a decline in referral site visitors, aligning with analysis findings. Bocconi reported a 13.4% lower in search referrals to information websites amongst households that gained entry to ChatGPT Search, whereas Wang noticed a 12.5-point discount in customers clicking on information hyperlinks underneath AI Mode task. In Bocconi’s examine, Google’s viewers remained steady even with fewer searches, whereas Wang’s knowledge indicated customers continued looking out on Google however clicked on fewer hyperlinks. The sample was completely different for market and leisure websites in Bocconi’s outcomes. Referrals to those websites stayed virtually the identical after ChatGPT Search entry, however referrals to reference, and tutorial websites dropped by greater than 25%, and the paper stops at describing that break up. Wang’s examine additionally discovered some folks had bother reaching particular web sites of any variety underneath AI Mode. When all site visitors collectively, these variations aren’t as clear.
Companies ceaselessly hear the 95% determine from purchasers, often primarily based on headlines. Similarweb views the continued overlap as a sign that individuals haven’t left Google altogether, at the very least among the many viewers it screens. Nonetheless, this quantity doesn’t reveal what number of queries these customers are making. The closest factor to a managed check of that discovered conventional search queries declined on U.S. desktops after ChatGPT Search entry, notably in informational classes.
When somebody asks ChatGPT for a advice after which searches for that model on Google, it seems as an natural go to in Search Console. Nonetheless, there’s no simple option to decide the precise supply of that go to. That’s the in-house staff’s downside, and the overlap quantity hides it. Similarweb names branded search raise as one of many metrics that will transfer if AI have been feeding demand, and calls it a kind of conversion that almost all analytics instruments don’t usually attribute to an AI session.
Total, metrics like viewers measurement, question quantity, search periods, AI visibility, and referral site visitors are sometimes mentioned as in the event that they’re a part of the identical measurement. This yr’s knowledge exhibits that, whereas Google retains customers engaged, it’s dropping some queries, and it will probably maintain the question, and nonetheless lose the press. In Wang’s examine, folks saved looking out whereas clicks, and belief fell.
What None Of These Datasets Can See
Not one of the datasets we’ve mentioned earlier than observe particular person customers throughout numerous platforms like Google Search, AI Mode, ChatGPT, and Gemini over a protracted interval on the activity degree. To present some background, Similarweb primarily concentrates on viewers knowledge reasonably than detailed session info. Bocconi and Gholami analyze U.S. desktop clickstream knowledge, with Bocconi’s dataset ending in July 2025. Wang’s experiment follows round a thousand Chrome customers over seven days, throughout which their searches have been routed into AI Mode.
At present, Google has not launched user-level knowledge to confirm its claims. Its I/O posts spotlight record-high question volumes and elevated search exercise however don’t specify what constitutes a question in AI Mode, present a baseline, or make clear which queries have elevated.
Moreover, it’s unclear which sorts of searches are shifting to AI, and which keep in a search field. Bocconi’s break up between informational and transactional classes is descriptive solely. Wang’s staff reminds us that their experiment wasn’t set as much as decide up small results in secondary click on outcomes, and Gholami’s session classes are derived from knowledge gathered from 308 customers.
Wanting Forward
Throughout Wang’s March experiment, AI Mode didn’t present advertisements, however the authors anticipate satisfaction, and click on metrics to maneuver as soon as advertisements are launched. On Might 20, Google shared that they’re testing two new advert codecs created with Gemini in AI Mode and increasing their Direct Provides pilot to incorporate responses generated by AI Mode. The sooner knowledge on clicks and belief come from a earlier product model. Bear in mind, all three tutorial papers are nonetheless drafts, and haven’t but been peer-reviewed. I’ll replace if any of the findings change in evaluation. Alphabet’s upcoming earnings name, often in late October, is the place Google is prone to replace its query-growth declare, and the factor to hear for is whether or not it comes with a baseline this time.
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