I lately wrote about an unconfirmed Google algorithm replace that rolled out in mid-January 2026, which negatively impacted the natural search visibility of dozens of main manufacturers. For a lot of the impacted websites I analyzed, the affect was disproportionately focused to the corporate’s weblog, or one other folder containing informational articles and sources.
That very same natural trajectory has continued into mid-February for all the subfolders I analyzed, utilizing the Sistrix U.S. Visibility Index:
Zooming out, that is what the drops seem like if you have a look at the visibility developments throughout the entire domains, not simply the blogs:
Right here is one other instance of the visibility affect on the corporate weblog for the largest firm within the checklist (when it comes to each ARR and natural visibility):
And that is what the affect appears to be like like if you have a look at the corporate’s full area’s visibility in natural search:
For sure, these current natural visibility drops have been excessive, relative to the websites’ general search engine marketing trajectories over the previous few years. Drilling down into 11 of the websites that noticed excessive declines during the last month, I wished to see if this new information might assist reply one other query:
Do drops in Google natural search visibility coincide with comparable drops in AI search citations?
My working speculation is that these drops are not simply remoted to conventional search. As an alternative, I believe we are going to discover that, for many LLMs, AI search quotation developments mirror what occurs in Google’s natural search outcomes, for 2 causes:
1. The Direct Pipeline: Google’s AI Ecosystem
For Google’s personal AI merchandise – AI Mode and Gemini – the correlation must be strongest. Presumably, Google is utilizing its personal index and top-ranking search outcomes to formulate AI search responses; subsequently, dropping in natural rankings ought to logically trigger these pages to be cited and referenced much less often in generative solutions.
2. The Downstream Results: Third-Get together LLMs (ChatGPT & Perplexity)
The hyperlink between Google natural rankings and third-party LLMs like ChatGPT and Perplexity is extra nuanced, as we don’t know precisely which serps these LLMs are surfacing for net search.
Whereas there’s a rising physique of proof (and trade reporting) suggesting that ChatGPT seemingly scrapes Google throughout reside net searches, we nonetheless technically lack official affirmation from the supply. Perplexity, however, is at the moment believed to make the most of the Courageous Search API as a core a part of its retrieval course of, alongside its personal specialised “PerplexityBot” crawler.
To check this out, I wished to drill down into the subfolders that noticed substantial visibility drops on Google in current weeks, to see whether or not the pattern line for AI search citations adopted swimsuit.
To start out, I honed in on a listing of 11 websites whose subfolders noticed substantial natural visitors drops between January 20, 2026 and February 16, 2026.
I used the Ahrefs MCP server with Claude Cowork to tug in estimated international month-to-month natural visitors numbers for every path (subfolder) within the checklist. As a result of a lot of the visitors declines began round January 21, 2026, I pulled the projected month-to-month natural numbers for January 20, 2026 and the newest date, February 16, 2026.
I additionally redacted the location names, leaving the identify of the subfolder and a short, anonymized abstract concerning the firm sort and the subfolder’s function:
These subfolders skilled anyplace from a -5.7% to -53.1% drop in estimated month-to-month natural search visitors since January twentieth, 2026.
Utilizing Ahrefs Model Radar, you’ll be able to drill all the way down to see the variety of AI search citations {that a} given subfolder has acquired throughout numerous LLMs over time. For instance, right here is the ChatGPT quotation pattern line for the primary subfolder listed within the above desk (U.S. information):
That is the corresponding chart displaying the natural visitors pattern for this identical subfolder, which started dropping round January 21, 2026:
I used the Ahrefs MCP server with Claude Cowork to tug international visitors and quotation information, and to investigate this identical sample for 11 of the subfolders that noticed massive drops.
Notice on methodology: Whereas 11 subfolders are a small pattern measurement, I used to be particularly on the lookout for a “clear” information set – subfolders experiencing an analogous algorithmic demotion on Google throughout the unconfirmed January 2026 replace. By narrowing the scope, I might higher isolate whether or not a lack of conventional search visibility interprets instantly right into a quotation drop in AI search.
Under are the high-level summaries of how natural visitors and quotation counts modified throughout Google and numerous LLMs, together with AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini:
Findings:
- The info exhibits a broad decline in each search engine marketing visitors & AI search citations: Each subfolder within the examine (11 of 11) skilled a drop in each Google natural visitors and whole AI search citations, with a big common quotation decline of -22.5%.
- Google’s AI Mode (-23.8%) and ChatGPT (-27.8%) confirmed probably the most extreme declines, carefully mirroring the -26.7% common drop in natural visitors.
- Whereas Gemini additionally noticed broad declines (10 of 11 websites), Perplexity proved to be probably the most resilient, with solely 4 of the 11 websites seeing a drop and a a lot milder common change of -2.9%.
- This information helps the idea that Perplexity is primarily utilizing non-Google search surfaces to generate its responses.
Trying on the modifications in estimated natural visitors for every subfolder in comparison with whole AI search citations between January 20 and February 16, 2026, the correlation is obvious: Vital losses in natural search visibility are virtually universally mirrored by a corresponding decline in AI search citations.
Drilling down into particular LLMs, together with Google’s AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini, exhibits how the decline was practically common for many platforms, whereas Perplexity often displayed a big divergence, displaying optimistic quotation progress for almost all of the subfolders regardless of their natural visitors losses.
ChatGPT (inexperienced) constantly exhibits the deepest declines throughout virtually each subfolder – typically exceeding AI Mode and Gemini. That is intriguing as a result of ChatGPT isn’t a Google product, but it seems extra delicate to those natural rating shifts than Google’s personal Gemini.
This seems to be one other clue that ChatGPT is reliant on Google’s search index throughout retrieval.
AI Mode and Gemini have a tendency to maneuver in the identical path however not the identical magnitude. Regardless of each being Google merchandise, AI Mode declines are typically steeper than Gemini’s. This might counsel they weight or supply from Google’s natural index otherwise – maybe AI Mode is extra tightly coupled to reside SERP rankings whereas Gemini attracts from a broader or cached information base.
The few websites the place Perplexity did decline (e.g., Website J, Website Ok) are additionally those displaying comparatively smaller natural drops. So even within the instances the place Perplexity tracked downward, it doesn’t seem like correlated with the severity of the Google natural loss – additional proof that Perplexity is probably going pulling from a special retrieval pipeline.
The under desk exhibits all of the natural search vs. AI search quotation information in a single place:
The desk reveals a transparent sample: each subfolder that misplaced natural visibility on Google additionally noticed a decline in whole AI search citations, with a median drop of -22.5% throughout all LLMs.
ChatGPT was probably the most severely impacted platform, with quotation declines reaching as excessive as -42.3% (Website E) and exceeding -34% for 5 of the eleven subfolders – typically surpassing even the natural visitors loss itself.
Google’s AI Mode adopted an analogous trajectory, whereas Gemini confirmed extra average declines throughout the board.
Probably the most notable outlier is Perplexity, which truly confirmed quotation progress for 7 of the 11 subfolders, reinforcing the idea that it retrieves from a non-Google search index.
Maybe probably the most fascinating discovering is that ChatGPT – a non-Google product – seems extra tightly coupled to Google’s natural rankings than Google’s personal Gemini, suggesting that ChatGPT’s net retrieval pipeline is closely depending on Google’s search outcomes.
One suggestion I’ve been making since AI search entered the search engine marketing dialog is that you shouldn’t put money into AEO/GEO techniques that could possibly be detrimental to search engine marketing efficiency. For instance, utilizing hidden immediate injections, cloaking, or self-promotional listicles (techniques that some have advocated for to spice up AI search visibility) may be briefly helpful for AI search, however might trigger large complications with Google and Bing’s natural search rating algorithms down the road.
Now, now we have much more proof that AI search is basically related to search engine marketing efficiency: In case you drop in natural search, you’ll be able to seemingly anticipate a corresponding drop in citations not solely from Google’s personal AI search merchandise, however from different LLMs like ChatGPT, which seem to even be closely reliant on Google’s search outcomes.
The one notable exception is Perplexity, which confirmed quotation progress for almost all of subfolders hit by the current algorithm replace. That mentioned, it’s vital to weigh this in opposition to the dimensions of visitors and LLM utilization at stake. In line with a current article by Similarweb, ChatGPT acquired 5.8 billion net visits in August 2025, in comparison with 148.2 million for Perplexity.
So as to add to this, if you think about Google’s natural search visitors – which nonetheless dwarfs all of the AI search platforms mixed – the overwhelming majority of your search-driven visibility throughout each serps and AI chatbots remains to be flowing by means of a pipeline the place Google’s rankings dictate the result.
For the previous yr, the search engine marketing trade has been asking how carefully conventional search engine marketing and AEO/GEO are actually tied collectively. I feel this information helps reply that query: Not solely is a powerful search engine marketing basis important for AI search visibility, however techniques that damage your natural rankings can have a cascading detrimental affect in your AI search citations as nicely. In different phrases, the quickest method to lose visibility in AI search may be to lose it in Google first.
Extra Sources:
This put up was initially printed on Lily Ray NYC Substack.
Featured Picture: PeopleImages/Shutterstock
