Increase your abilities with Development Memo’s weekly knowledgeable insights. Subscribe free of charge!
Extra information exhibits ChatGPT isn’t taking market share away from Google.
As an alternative, it’s increasing the vary of use circumstances and blurring the road between looking for data and performing duties.
I checked out Similarweb information to grasp how this impacts 4 completely different phases of the consumer journey throughout Google and ChatGPT:
- Utilization.
- Conduct.
- Outbound clicks.
- Changing.
What I discovered is that ChatGPT adoption is, basically, a 400,000-pound locomotive barreling down the tracks with no intention of stopping anytime quickly.
Consumer conversations inside ChatGPT are wealthy in context, which ends up in larger conversion charges when intent shifts from data in search of or producing to purchasing.
Lastly, and in addition most notably for SEOs and progress entrepreneurs, ChatGPT is sending much more customers out to the online.
In fact, all of those stats are nonetheless small compared to Google.
Nonetheless, no effort from Google has been in a position to gradual the momentum of ChatGPT’s runaway practice. In regards to the information I used on this evaluation:
- Information supply: Similarweb (shoutout to Sam Sheridan).
- Time interval examined: July 2024 – June 2025 (final 12 months) vs. July 2023 – June 2024 (earlier 12 months).
- I additionally examined U.S. vs. UK consumer habits.
Persons are dashing to ChatGPT.
Over the past 12 months within the U.S., ChatGPT visits grew from 3.5 to six.8 billion visits (+94%).
Within the UK, it was even quicker: 131% YoY, from 868 million to 2 billion.
Over the identical time span, Google progress stagnated. Right here’s what the information confirmed:
- U.S. stagnation: -0.85% (196 vs. 194 billion).
- UK stagnation: -0.22% (35.56 vs. 35.49 billion).
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigTo place it into perspective: Google had virtually 200 billion visits within the U.S. during the last 12 months, in comparison with ChatGPT’s 6.8 billion.
So, ChatGPT has a mere 3.4% of Google’s complete visits.
Nonetheless, if progress charges maintain regular, in concept, ChatGPT might hit Google’s quantity within the subsequent 5 years.
My speculation: It’s virtually assured that ChatGPT received’t hit Google’s go to quantity as a result of there are too many transferring elements (vitality/chip limitations, coaching information, high quality enhancements, regulation, and many others.).
However contemplate that Google has declined by -0.85% (~2 billion visits) year-over-year, and you’ll see the place that is going.
Visits can solely let you know a lot.
Latest information from Semrush and Profound means that one-third to two-thirds of consumer intent when interacting with AI chatbots is generative, that means customers use ChatGPT to do and fewer to go looking [1, 2].
Leaked chats from ChatGPT and different AI chatbots affirm the mixture information.
So, even after we evaluate visits to ChatGPT vs. Google, they’re not resulting in the identical final result.
However, in opposition to that argument, I’ll say that Google morphs extra right into a mirror of ChatGPT with AI Mode – and each generative intent has a excessive probability of together with data alongside the dialog journey that’s sourced to different websites or creators.
The conversational nature of AI chatbots means intent is fluid and may change from one immediate to the subsequent.
Alongside the way in which, it’s possible customers come throughout data of their conversations that might’ve been a basic Google Seek for merchandise or options.
On the finish of the day, ChatGPT is continuous its adoption because the fastest-growing product on earth so far.
What does that imply for you?
- Keep the course.
- Preserve monitoring referral site visitors, conversions, and matter visibility on Google + ChatGPT.
- Optimize for visibility with a powerful concentrate on basic website positioning.
- Preserve an ear to the bottom and be taught as a lot as you may. Issues are evolving quick, and readability will include time.
Fast reminder right here: I lately transitioned my WhatsApp group over to Slack. I share ongoing information and learnings all through the week overtly and freely, so it’s a terrific place to remain up to date with out all the additional (and typically overwhelming) noise. No must be a premium subscriber to get entry to the primary dialogue channel. Be a part of right here!
Previous habits are exhausting to interrupt.
Persons are used to looking on Google a sure means, whereas ChatGPT is a inexperienced discipline.
For the overwhelming majority of us, our first expertise with ChatGPT was a dialog, so all of us adopted it because the default approach to interact.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigBecause of this, the typical question immediate size on ChatGPT vs. Google is:
- 80 phrases vs 3.4 within the U.S.
- 91 phrases vs. 3.2 within the UK.
Even informational prompts are 10 occasions longer (~38 phrases) on ChatGPT than on Google. Folks ask extra detailed questions, which reveal rather more about themselves and their intent.
Along with a rising context window, ChatGPT returns rather more personalised and (normally) higher informational solutions – I’m nonetheless ready on persistently higher industrial/buy intent outcomes.[3] AI chatbots compress the consumer journey from many queries over a number of days to 1 dialog with prolonged prompts.
For you, this implies it’s much more vital to watch the proper prompts.
(I shared a trick with premium subscribers for locating prompts in Google Search Console from AI Mode in Is AI reducing into your website positioning conversions?)
As referral site visitors from Google reached historic lows, ChatGPT’s referral site visitors reached new highs.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigOver the past 12 months, ChatGPT’s U.S. referral site visitors to web sites jumped by +3,496% (UK: +5,950%), from 14 to 516 million (after cleansing up referrals to Openai.com, that are largely authentications).
As compared, Google’s outgoing referral visits grew solely +23% within the U.S. and 19% within the UK.
When you think about Google referrals embody navigational searches (folks navigating to the homepage of a model) and advert clicks (ChatGPT doesn’t but have advertisements), 23% just isn’t a lot in any respect.
ChatGPT’s referral site visitors to exterior web sites makes up ~27% of Google’s (1.9 billion, within the final 12 months), based mostly on the information. That feels excessive, in my discipline commentary.
Additionally contemplate that ChatGPT’s aim just isn’t essentially to ship out site visitors however to maintain the dialog going till customers have the optimum response.
That being stated, referral site visitors has grown and continues to take action. Till lately.
In accordance with Profound, ChatGPT’s referral site visitors was down -52% between July 21 and August 20. [4] And that’s important.
Time will inform whether or not that is simply an experiment or a remaining determination.
For you, this implies it is best to see extra ChatGPT referral site visitors during the last 12 months if you happen to optimize properly.
You won’t see a rise of +3,500%, however if you happen to’re not seeing not less than some progress, it’s possible your rivals are.
Conversions from ChatGPT are small compared with Google (in quantity), however they’re rising quickly.
The entire narrative of investing in AI visibility optimization (AEO/GEO/LLMO) banks on the truth that it is going to proceed on the identical tempo and turn into significant.
Thus far, it looks like that wager will work out.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigWhen ChatGPT sends site visitors to websites, the conversion price is normally larger than Google’s. As of June 2025:
- ChatGPT’s conversion price of transactional site visitors was 6.9% within the U.S. in comparison with 5.4% for Google.
- Within the UK, ChatGPT reached 5.5%, which is on par with Google.
ChatGPT sends higher-quality site visitors to web sites, not less than within the U.S.
I outline high quality on this context as “larger intent,” that means guests usually tend to convert into clients.
The explanation ChatGPT site visitors is of upper high quality is that customers get solutions to their questions in a single dialog. After they click on out, they’re “primed” to purchase.
To me, the larger query is how buy choices are influenced earlier than a click on occurs (and even when no click-out occurs).
For you, this implies:
- Have a look at which pages get referral site visitors. Take the typical referral site visitors and optimize pages that get some however below-average clicks.
- Optimizing for citations issues as a result of citations are what get clicked. Have a look at the quotation hole between your rivals and your website.
- Search for conversion optimization alternatives (in-line CTAs, lead gen property, quizzes, and many others) on pages that get ChatGPT referral site visitors. Utilizing an ordinary heatmap software will level you to areas of the web page that are perfect for a bit of CRO.
ChatGPT has all of the substances to turn into the subsequent huge consumer platform on which different firms can construct – similar to Google 25 years in the past:
- Utilization is rising.
- Conduct is wealthy in context.
- Referral site visitors is capturing up.
- Conversions occur at a wholesome price.
Now, site visitors and conversations simply want extra quantity.
They’re nonetheless tiny compared.
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
